Is It Better To Give Than To Receive?

Previously we've looked at the team-by-team level of Hitting in the NHL, and shown that a high level of hits doesn't necessarily correspond with team success. I thought I'd take this a step further, and look at not just who's doing the hitting, but who's getting hit. The first table below shows accumulated data from the 2005-6 Regular Season, broken down by Hits For, Hits Against, the Ratio between those two values, as well as the difference (call it a Hits Plus/Minus). Not surprisingly, some of the teams that did the most hitting got hit the most as well, meaning that teams like Toronto, Ottawa and Dallas provoked other teams to hit back, responding to their aggressive play. Similarly, low-hitting teams like Minnesota, Florida, and Columbus were among the teams that got hit the least - their games were closer to the Ice Capades than SlapShot.

On the extremes, however, you have teams that either got hit or out-hit their opposition by a wide margin. The Boston Bruins, for example, dished out 44% more hits than they took, far ahead of 2nd-place Anaheim at +20% (hey, at least they led the league in something, right?). At the opposite end you have more teams that were seriously pushed around. Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Colorado, and the New York Rangers all gave less than 80% as many hits as they took, with the Rangers taking 378 extra hits over the course of the season. Take a look at the table below, and see how your favorite team stacks up on the Bully-to-Punching-Bag scale:

Hits For and Against By Team (2005-6) Sorted By Ratio

TEAM	HITS FOR	HITS AGAINST	RATIO	DIFF
BOS	1758	1222	1.44	536
ANA	1246	1041	1.20	205
PIT	1321	1161	1.14	160
NYI	1523	1341	1.14	182
CBJ	1147	1011	1.13	136
WSH	1542	1360	1.13	182
FLA	1121	996	1.13	125
TOR	1805	1613	1.12	192
CHI	1351	1230	1.10	121
N.J	1167	1067	1.09	100
OTT	1758	1611	1.09	147
MTL	1649	1520	1.08	129
L.A	1353	1277	1.06	76
ATL	1406	1329	1.06	77
CGY	1648	1559	1.06	89
DAL	1722	1633	1.05	89
VAN	1355	1302	1.04	53
EDM	1203	1175	1.02	28
STL	1175	1175	1.00	0
PHX	1422	1435	0.99	-13
NSH	1155	1231	0.94	-76
S.J	1411	1518	0.93	-107
PHI	1294	1414	0.92	-120
DET	1149	1296	0.89	-147
CAR	1137	1283	0.89	-146
BUF	1073	1285	0.84	-212
COL	951	1209	0.79	-258
MIN	846	1106	0.76	-260
NYR	1192	1570	0.76	-378
T.B	975	1297	0.75	-322

Now here's where things get real interesting. We showed earlier that the level of Hits a team makes isn't significantly correlated to its performance. When you look at the correlation of Hits to Goals For and Against, you come up with values of -0.03 and 0.05, so near to zero as to suggest no relation between those figures. For those needing a quick refresher, correllation values swing from 1 to -1. 1 means that two stats run perfectly in lockstep, -1 means they are opposed (high value in one means low value in the other), and 0 means no discernable relation.

When I ran the figures for the Ratio of Hits For/Against on a team-by-team basis against their Ratio of Goals For/Against, I came up with something surprising; a correlation value of -0.40! That suggests that teams which outhit their opponents end up getting outscored by them (and hence, why Bobby Clarke is out of work).

The relationship isn't particularly strong, but it is stronger than many other links found so far. Perhaps the real heroes on a team are the guys who take Hits in order to make plays, holding onto the puck for that extra split-second before getting knocked on their kiester.

I'd encourage those who are more formally trained in statistics to verify these results (hello, Hockey Analytics and Hockey Numbers). And stay tuned for further nuggets from the NHL statistical goldmine...

Hits For and Against By Team (2005-6)

TEAM	GOALS FOR	GOALS AGAINST	RATIO	HITS FOR	HITS AGAINST	RATIO
ANA	254	229	1.11	1246	1041	1.20
ATL	281	275	1.02	1406	1329	1.06
BOS	230	266	0.86	1758	1222	1.44
BUF	281	239	1.18	1073	1285	0.84
CAR	294	260	1.13	1137	1283	0.89
CBJ	223	279	0.80	1147	1011	1.13
CGY	218	200	1.09	1648	1559	1.06
CHI	211	285	0.74	1351	1230	1.10
COL	283	257	1.10	951	1209	0.79
DAL	265	218	1.22	1722	1633	1.05
DET	305	209	1.46	1149	1296	0.89
EDM	256	251	1.02	1203	1175	1.02
FLA	240	257	0.93	1121	996	1.13
L.A	249	270	0.92	1353	1277	1.06
MIN	231	215	1.07	846	1106	0.76
MTL	243	247	0.98	1649	1520	1.08
N.J	242	229	1.06	1167	1067	1.09
NSH	259	227	1.14	1155	1231	0.94
NYI	230	278	0.83	1523	1341	1.14
NYR	257	215	1.20	1192	1570	0.76
OTT	314	211	1.49	1758	1611	1.09
PHI	267	259	1.03	1294	1414	0.92
PHX	246	271	0.91	1422	1435	0.99
PIT	244	316	0.77	1321	1161	1.14
S.J	266	242	1.10	1411	1518	0.93
STL	197	292	0.67	1175	1175	1.00
T.B	252	260	0.97	975	1297	0.75
TOR	257	270	0.95	1805	1613	1.12
VAN	256	255	1.00	1355	1302	1.04
WSH	237	306	0.77	1542	1360	1.13